I'm dubious about how this 38% figure might apply to Nigerian doctors - I think that's the total international return rate? From the article
"Within five years 33% of migrants return to their origin countries, and 38% return within ten years. As with out-migration, there is substantial heterogeneity across countries in return migration ra…
I'm dubious about how this 38% figure might apply to Nigerian doctors - I think that's the total international return rate? From the article
"Within five years 33% of migrants return to their origin countries, and 38% return within ten years. As with out-migration, there is substantial heterogeneity across countries in return migration rates. On average, advanced economies such as the
United States and high-income countries in the European Union experience higher return migration rates than other countries."
I couldn't find numbers for Nigeria, but would be very surprised if there was a higher than 25% return rate over 10 years for people who migrated for work (not including education migration)
I agree that resentment will be there and that bonding like that could be a dissuasion to return of senior clinicians returning but I don't think return migration is going to be a very important consideration in policy for increasing the number Nigerian doctors over the next 10 years, first because unfortunately its going to be tiny compared to the number who leave - I'd be pretty sure there will be under 25% return migration of doctors (more likely far less). Second because I think it will be very hard to move the needle on.
I know a bunch of entrepreneurial Nigerians who have returned home to make their country better, which is super cool. Perhaps some doctors will get this sentiment at some stage as well but it seems unlikely.
Interestingly though Nigeria is doing something at least to ring them back! Its not clear what it is but an interesting one at least.
I'd love to know what percentage of Nigerian emigrants eventually return, but the state capacity for collecting that kind of information in Nigeria is very weak.
I'm dubious about how this 38% figure might apply to Nigerian doctors - I think that's the total international return rate? From the article
"Within five years 33% of migrants return to their origin countries, and 38% return within ten years. As with out-migration, there is substantial heterogeneity across countries in return migration rates. On average, advanced economies such as the
United States and high-income countries in the European Union experience higher return migration rates than other countries."
I couldn't find numbers for Nigeria, but would be very surprised if there was a higher than 25% return rate over 10 years for people who migrated for work (not including education migration)
I agree that resentment will be there and that bonding like that could be a dissuasion to return of senior clinicians returning but I don't think return migration is going to be a very important consideration in policy for increasing the number Nigerian doctors over the next 10 years, first because unfortunately its going to be tiny compared to the number who leave - I'd be pretty sure there will be under 25% return migration of doctors (more likely far less). Second because I think it will be very hard to move the needle on.
I know a bunch of entrepreneurial Nigerians who have returned home to make their country better, which is super cool. Perhaps some doctors will get this sentiment at some stage as well but it seems unlikely.
Interestingly though Nigeria is doing something at least to ring them back! Its not clear what it is but an interesting one at least.
"https://punchng.com/tinubu-unveils-policy-to-bring-back-12400-japa-doctors/"
I'd love to know what percentage of Nigerian emigrants eventually return, but the state capacity for collecting that kind of information in Nigeria is very weak.
Given we don't know how many people there are in Nigeria (https://nigeria.iom.int/news/npc-we-lack-accurate-figures-nigerias-population), it's hard to get estimates on subpopulations like this.