Obviously I hope your post is correct. The biggest point I'd worry about is your argument that "it seems very likely that the ~20-30% of main applicants that are required to have a PAYE job while in the UK that do not appear to have a PAYE job are simply not in the UK anymore." I doubt the government actually has the capacity to force people to leave within 60 days; and while I'm not particular au fait with the benefits system, (1) there are substantial benefits which are not classed as "public funds" (see e.g https://www.edrith.co.uk/p/actively-misleading-terms-undermine); (2) given the existence of large frauds in the recent past (e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn330zkvnmyo), checks on past employment and contributions potentially aren't all that robust. (This latter point, of course, doesn't just apply to immigrants.)
Pakistani nationals have a considerably higher percentage (85%) with verified PAYE earnings, probably because Pakistani nationals are less likely to move home.
* Especially because the average American income in the dataset is £112,100 pa - I don't think there are that many under-the-table jobs paying that!
Re. NRPF: I actually think this is reasonably named!
The benefits that one can access are largely tied to your job. As an employed person, I am paying NI, so I get (some of) the benefits paid for by NI - e.g. statutory maternity, sick pay, incapacity benefit, job seeker's allowance. I already am unlikely to get the state pension - because I'm a US citizen and am unlikely to live in the UK for 35 years; I'd find it annoying if I paid NI for literally no benefit!
Great post, would love to see more accessible analyses about immigrant worker fiscal impacts for other high-flow countries as well (eg US, Canada, Germany)
This was very interesting, thanks for writing it!
Obviously I hope your post is correct. The biggest point I'd worry about is your argument that "it seems very likely that the ~20-30% of main applicants that are required to have a PAYE job while in the UK that do not appear to have a PAYE job are simply not in the UK anymore." I doubt the government actually has the capacity to force people to leave within 60 days; and while I'm not particular au fait with the benefits system, (1) there are substantial benefits which are not classed as "public funds" (see e.g https://www.edrith.co.uk/p/actively-misleading-terms-undermine); (2) given the existence of large frauds in the recent past (e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn330zkvnmyo), checks on past employment and contributions potentially aren't all that robust. (This latter point, of course, doesn't just apply to immigrants.)
Re. the ~20-30% that do not have a PAYE job are not in the UK anymore: I recognize that people may argue with me here!
My supposition is strengthened by the breakdown of % of people with PAYE earnings by nationality - e.g. only 76% of Americans with valid work visas have PAYE earnings (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sponsored-work-and-family-visa-earnings-employment-and-income-tax/sponsored-work-and-family-visa-earnings-employment-and-income-tax). I think the chance that those 1,248 Americans without PAYE earnings in the data set are probably not working under the table,* but have just moved home before their visa expires.
Pakistani nationals have a considerably higher percentage (85%) with verified PAYE earnings, probably because Pakistani nationals are less likely to move home.
* Especially because the average American income in the dataset is £112,100 pa - I don't think there are that many under-the-table jobs paying that!
Re. NRPF: I actually think this is reasonably named!
The benefits that one can access are largely tied to your job. As an employed person, I am paying NI, so I get (some of) the benefits paid for by NI - e.g. statutory maternity, sick pay, incapacity benefit, job seeker's allowance. I already am unlikely to get the state pension - because I'm a US citizen and am unlikely to live in the UK for 35 years; I'd find it annoying if I paid NI for literally no benefit!
Great post, would love to see more accessible analyses about immigrant worker fiscal impacts for other high-flow countries as well (eg US, Canada, Germany)